Everything is gambling now: the latest news on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi

Though it was weird to see the Golden Globes partner with Polymarket for its most recent awards show, the collaboration wasn’t shocking given the way that people have begun using prediction markets to gamble on basically anything. Prediction markets are being used to bet on everything from when wars might break out to who will win the Nobel Peace Prize, so why wouldn’t people also be interested in placing wagers on more entertaining and less consequential things, like celebrities’ chances of winning industry accolades?

But this “everything is gambling” culture has given prediction market firms an opportunity to insert themselves into other institutions — like the media — in ways that seem designed to erode people’s understanding of how those institutions function. And this year’s Oscars have shaped up to be another big betting event that normalizes the sportsbook-ification of reality.

Kalshi is facing backlash from its own users after a class action lawsuit was filed last week alleging it failed to pay out as promised for wagers regarding when Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah ​Ali Khamenei would leave or be removed from office. Khamenei was killed in strikes on Iran last month, but according to the lawsuit, Kalshi didn’t implement a “death carveout” until after Khamenei had died.

Meanwhile, Kalshi is reportedly working to attract more women to its platform in an effort to grow its user base. As the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, the percentage of women using Kalshi has doubled over the past ten months, growing from 13 percent to 26 percent of Kalshi’s total users. According to Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara, that shift involves “catering to [women’s] interests and expertise in ways that traditional financial markets haven’t.”

Today on Decoder, let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news itself in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways.

My guest today is Liz Lopatto, senior reporter at The Verge, who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position that directly incentivizes insider trading. That, in turn, creates a long list of very predictable problems.

In a statement on X, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said his company would pay out positions on “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” at the last trading price before his death. Mansour said that Kalshi doesn’t “list markets directly tied to death” and that its rules are designed to “prevent people from profiting from death.” In addition, Kalshi is refunding fees related to the market and reimbursing anyone who purchased shares after Khamenei’s death.

Some users have voiced anger at how the situation was handled, claiming that either Kalshi’s rules should have been communicated more clearly, or that its markets should have been more narrowly worded to avoid confusion. (“Will Khamenei resign?” for example.) Some are accusing Kalshi of trying to have it both ways by allowing users to bet on Khamenei being out of power, which they believe was never going to happen without his death, but refusing to pay out people’s bets in full to boost their bottom line.

Polymarket has been allowing people to bet on when the US would strike Iran next. Obviously, now that it’s actually happened and people have died, the prediction betting market is feeling some pressure. The site has been at the center of controversy before, including suspicions of insider trading on the Super Bowl halftime show and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

In a statement posted on its site, Polymarket defended its decision to allow betting on the potential start of a war, saying that it was an “invaluable” source of news and answers, before taking shots at traditional media and Elon Musk’s X. The statement reads:

Hello and welcome to Regulator, a newsletter for Verge subscribers about the love-hate (but mostly hate) relationship between Silicon Valley and Washington. I hope everyone got to celebrate George Washington’s birthday in their preferred manner: skiing, staycationing, subscribing to The Verge if you haven’t already, etc.

Political alliances are rarely permanent, so it’s somewhat predictable that the MAGA-tech bro alliance seems to have fallen apart in the span of a single year. Which side the administration would actually choose, though, was more difficult to foresee.

Nevada is suing to block the prediction market platform Kalshi from allowing residents to place bets on the outcomes of events, including elections and sports games, as reported earlier by Business Insider. The lawsuit adds to a growing number of legal battles across the country, claiming that Kalshi is harming the state’s gambling market by operating without a proper license and by allowing users under 21 to use the platform.

The state of Nevada filed the lawsuit just hours after a federal appeals court denied Kalshi’s request to block Nevada from taking action against the company. As prediction betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket become more popular — allowing users to place bets on everything from election outcomes to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro — state lawmakers have had to grapple with how to regulate them. But putting local restrictions on prediction betting markets may prove difficult, as the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is rallying against state-level regulations.

On December 31st, a brand-new account on Polymarket placed a bet: Nicolás Maduro, the leader of Venezuela, would be out of office by the end of January. It was the first in a series of increasing bets. On January 3rd, the US bombed the Venezuelan capital, kidnapped Maduro and his wife, and killed at least 80 people along the way. The account cashed out with almost half a million dollars.

It would be a misread to describe the surprise invasion of Venezuela as imperial expansion driven by the dictates of capitalism; it is, somehow, worse. Normal capitalism requires a working relationship with reality. Normal capitalism thrives on predictability. The Trump administration is behaving like gambling addicts chasing clout in an attention economy. Venezuela is a fucking meme stock.

Shortly before the US military launched an attack on Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro, an account on Polymarket made some very suspiciously timed investments. The prediction market had been running bets on when or if Maduro would be removed from power, with prices for “out by January 31, 2026” as low as $0.07 late Friday evening. But within 24 hours of the military action, a newly created account invested tens of thousands of dollars, racking up several hundred thousand in profits.

The account was created less than a week ago and invested over $30,000 the day before the assault, turning a profit of over $408,000. The activity was flagged on social media, with people speculating that the person placing the bet was acting on inside information and perhaps even worked at the Pentagon. Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, quickly pointed out on X that “Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged.”

Here’s a list of things you can bet on, right this second. This year’s Super Bowl winner, sure. The winner of Survivor season 49, okay. But the number of gifts Santa will deliver this year? The number of tweets Elon Musk will send in the next 7 days? How much money Avatar: Fire and Ash will make at the box office? The next president of of Portugal? On Polymarket and Kalshi, if you can dream it up, you can probably bet on it. Welcome to the age of the prediction market.

On this episode of The Vergecast, we try to figure out where prediction markets came from, and why they’ve become so popular. Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal joins the show to track the rise of Polymarket and Kalshi, explain their controversies and ultimate acceptance, and put these companies in their correct place in the economy. Most of all, he helps us figure out if there’s actually something new happening here, or if the betting has been happening forever.

This is an excerpt of Sources by Alex Heath, a newsletter about AI and the tech industry, syndicated just for The Verge subscribers once a week.

At 8PM on election night in New York City, I arrived at an unmarked office building in the Meatpacking District.

If you’ve been on social media lately, you might’ve seen the unsettling AI slop videos showing AI-generated people in wild scenarios or just speaking a bunch of nonsense. On Wednesday night, the betting platform Kalshi decided to take this trend outside the social sphere by putting a nonsensical AI-generated ad in front of the millions of viewers watching the NBA Finals — and it apparently cost just $2,000 to make.

The AI-generated highlights various things “people” are betting on, like whether the Oklahoma City Thunder or Indiana Pacers will win the NBA Finals, how many hurricanes will occur this year, and whether the price of eggs will go up this month. It flashes between scenes of an elderly man wearing a cowboy hat while carrying a chihuahua, someone swimming in a pool of eggs, and an alien chugging beer.

Today, I’m talking with Vlad Tenev, the cofounder and CEO of Robinhood, which is one of the most well-known consumer finance apps in the world. It started as a way to open up stock trading, but the company’s ambitions have grown over time — and they’re getting even bigger.

Just a day before Tenev and I talked, Robinhood announced it would soon be offering bank accounts and wealth management services, which would allow Robinhood to be involved with your money at every possible level.